La mayoría de las personas hablan de los refugiados y de tópicos falsos sobre las causas que empujan a 11 millones de sirios a abandonar sus hogares, trabajo, amigos… pocos analizan la verdad, las cifras, y casi nadie ha escuchado a los refugiados sirios contar sus relatos. Esto hay que cambiarlo…

Aquí están los seis resultados de la primera encuesta que se realiza a los refugiados sirios en Europa, esos que ha hecho un viaje peligroso mirando con dolor al país que dejan atrás. El estudio se ha realizado en cinco ciudades alemanas, con el apoyo del centro de ciencias sociales en Berlín.

  1. La mayoría de sirios huyen de Bashar al-Assad

El 70% de los sirios huyen de Bashar al-Assad

El 70% de los sirios señalan como primera causa de su éxodo el genocidio provocado por Bashar al-Assad

Al contrario de lo que te cuenten, el 70% de los sirios responden que el genocidio organizado del régimen de Assad es la primera de las causas que les empujan a huir de sus hogares. El 32% señala a ISIS – DAESH, 18% al ejército de liberación, 17% a los terroristas del Frente Al Nusra ligado a Al-Qaeda y el 8% a los rebeldes kurdos… Cada cuál según la zona en la que vivía… y principalmente los refugiados provienen de ciudades de gran población en Siria.

  1. Lo que más temen es ser detenidos o secuestrados por el régimen de Assad

El

La mayoría de los sirios temen ser detenidos o secuestrados por el régimen de Basahar al-Assad, esa es la primera respuesta.

El 42% de ellos dicen tener miedo a la violencia de ISIS u otros grupos armados. Sin embargo, la mayoría teme a la brutalidad de la dictadura, ejercida desde hace cuatro años en aquellas primeras manifestaciones civiles. El sadismo lo prueban la filtración de miles de imágenes de torturas en prisiones sirias del régimen de Assad.

  1. Todos los sirios quieren regresar pronto a su casa

Tan sólo el 8% de los refugiados sirios consideraría la posibilidad de residir en Europa permanentemente

Tan sólo el 8% de los refugiados sirios consideraría la posibilidad de residir en Europa permanentemente

Podría parecer que estas personas, que cruzan el amar sin seguridad, que son estafados por mafias o se agolpan frente a alambradas fronterizas, quieren quedarse para siempre en Europa. Pero no es así. Los sirios quieren regresar al país que conocen y aman. Es la violencia salvaje quien empuja su huida. Sólo el 8% contestó en la encuesta que querría permanecer en Europa indefinidamente.

  1. Assad tiene que ir para que sirios a volver a casa

La salida de Assad es una condición para que los sirios regresen a su país

La salida de Assad es una condición para que los sirios regresen a su país

Es importante tener en cuenta que la mayoría de los refugiados sirios dicen que no regresarán a su país mientras Assad siga en el poder, los sirios reclaman paz y el fin de la dictadura. Aunque Rusia y otros dicen luchar contra el ISIS, los insurgentes y ponen como condición la continuidad de Bashar al-Assad.

52% de los refugiados sirios encuestados dijeron que Bashar al-Assad tendría que abandonar el poder antes de regresar a sus casas.

  1. La población civil muere indiscriminadamente por las «bombas de barril» de Assad

Muchos sirios no habrían abandonado su país si no cayeran sobre ellos bombas de barril

Muchos sirios no habrían abandonado su país si no cayeran sobre ellos bombas de barril

La gran mayoría de los refugiados dicen que sienten pánico de las bombas de barril que el ejército de Assad lanza desde helicópteros sobre barrios de población civil, barriles de metal llenos de explosivos y metralla.

Este sistema de bombas de barril son el arma principal que ha causado el mayor número de muertes de civiles en Siria

73% de los encuestados señalan a las bombas del barril como la mayor amenaza para su seguridad personal. El 58% dicen que una zona de exclusión aérea ayudaría a mejorar la protección de los civiles sirios. Tan sólo el 24% contestaron que la ayuda internacional sería una solución inmediata.

  1. La respuesta militar de Assad a las manifestaciones pacíficas, el origen de la guerra

La respuesta militar a las manifestaciones pacíficas de 2011 son el origen de la guerra

La respuesta militar a las manifestaciones pacíficas de 2011 son el origen de la guerra

Mucho ha cambiado el escenario en los últimos cuatro años y medio de guerra, pero según la mayoría de los encuestados, el origen de la guerra actual surgió tras la orden de Assad de utilizar la fuerza militar contra los manifestantes pacíficos, que en 2011 exigían libertad y dignidad.

El 79% de los refugiados sirios dijeron que fue la respuesta militar de Bashar al-Assad a la primavera siria es el origen del conflicto actual.

Resultados detallados de la encuesta

En esta encuesta se entrevistó a 889 sirios en Alemania, entre 24 de septiembre 2015 y el 02 de octubre 2015, mediante un cuestionario estandarizado. Las entrevistas se llevaron a cabo en 12 centros de refugiados y puntos de registro de refugiados en Berlín, Hannover, Bremen, Leipzig y Eisenhüttenstadt. Los investigadores del Centro de Ciencias Sociales de Berlín participaron en la concepción, ejecución y evaluación de la encuesta. Los resultados completos son estos, en inglés:

Listen To Refugees – First Survey of Syrian Refugees in Europe
Charts of tables are in separate sheets. Click on the tabs at the bottom to view.
The survey was conceived, implemented and evaluated with the assistance of Heiko Giebler, social scientist at the Berlin Social Science Center (WZB), department for Democracy and Democratization heiko.giebler@wzb.eu +49 30 25491 513 https://www.wzb.eu/en/about-the-wzb
Methodology: 889 Syrians living in Germany were interviewed between 24 September 2015 to 2 October 2015 using a standardised questionnaire. Interviews were held in 12 centres housing arriving refugees, other refugee accommodation and refugee registration points in Berlin, Hanover, Bremen, Leipzig and Eisenhüttenstadt. At the time of the survey, no representative demographic information (gender, age etc.) was available for the population in question. Surveyed individuals were interviewed in locations that are frequented by all refugee groups independent of political opinions and social characteristics. The data was collected in five towns, avoiding selection effects due to location choices of different refugee groups. Surveyed individuals were approached upon entering or leaving registration centers and refugee housing. All self-declared Syrians were asked to participate in the survey. A combination of face-to-face interviews and computer-assisted self-completion of questionnaires using tablet computers (CAPI) was used. This ensured respondents’ confidence in the anonymity of the survey and allowed for the inclusion of illiterate respondents in the survey. Questions were selected in cooperation with experts of the current situation in Syria and translated into Arabic by specialists. The survey was carried out by 18 Syrian nationals.
The group of organisations supporting the survey are Planet Syria www.planetsyria.org, Adopt a Revolution www.adoptarevolution.org and The Syria Campaign www.thesyriacampaign.org
Q1: Which Syrian province are you from?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Idlib 7% 65
Hasakah 19% 164
Aleppo 21% 185
Hama 4% 35
Homs 6% 52
Daraa 5% 45
Damascus 19% 170
Deir Ezzour 6% 50
Raqqa 3% 25
Rif Dimashq 7% 58
Suwayda 0% 4
Tartus 0% 2
Quneitra 2% 14
Latakia 1% 13
answered question 882
Q2; When did you leave Syria?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
2015 65% 569
2014 10% 91
2013 12% 110
2012 7% 63
2011 4% 35
before  2011 2% 14
answered question 882
Q3: When did you arrive in Germany?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
2015 96% 833
2014 3% 25
2013 1% 8
2012 0% 2
2011 0% 0
before 2011 0% 4
answered question 872
Q4: Did any members of your family accompany you on your journey? (multiple answers)
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Children 16% 136
Husband / Wife 17% 146
Mother / Father 6% 53
Other 24% 213
I am alone 51% 447
answered question 871
Q5: Do you feel welcome in Germany?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Yes 58% 504
No 12% 105
Almost 17% 145
I don´t Know 14% 121
answered question 875
Q6: Did your area in Syria get shelled?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Yes 88% 777
No 12% 101
answered question 878
Q7: Who was responsible for shelling your area? (multiple answers)
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Syrian Army and allied groups 74% 565
ISIS 33% 251
Al Nusra Front 14% 111
Kurdish forces (YPG) 4% 29
Free Syrian Army (FSA) 18% 137
Other Rebel Groups 7% 56
International Coalition 8% 65
I don’t know 12% 89
answered question 767
Q8. Was armed fighting a threat to your personal safety?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Yes 92% 799
No 8% 70
answered question 869
Q9: Who was responsible for the fighting? (multiple answers)
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Syrian Army and allied groups 70% 554
ISIS 32% 252
Al Nusra Front 16% 130
Kurdish forces (YPG) 8% 66
Free Syrian Army (FSA) 18% 142
Other Rebel Groups 8% 65
I don´t know 16% 130
answered question 797
Q:10 Did anyone close to you (family members, friends) get arrested, injured or killed?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Yes 88% 759
No 12% 104
answered question 863
Q11: Were sieges / lack of food a threat to your personal safety?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Yes 82% 705
No 18% 158
answered question 863
Q12: Were barrel bombs a threat to your personal safety?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Yes 73% 630
No 27% 233
answered question 863
Q13; Was kidnapping or getting arrested a threat to your personal safety?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Yes 86% 741
No 14% 122
answered question 863
Q14: Who did you fear getting arrested or kidnapped by? (Multiple answers)
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Syrian Army and its allied groups 77% 567
ISIS 42% 312
Al Nusra Front 18% 136
Kurdish forces (YPG) 8% 59
Free Syrian Army 13% 98
Other Rebel Groups 9% 67
I don´t know 8% 59
answered question 741
Q15: Out of the following – which was the biggest threat to your personal safety?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Armed fighting 28% 240
Siege / lack of food 5% 39
Barrel bombs 28% 239
Kidnapping/ getting arrested 35% 300
None of these 4% 36
answered question 854
Q16: In your opinion, what international actions supported/led to the current situation in Syria? (multiple answers)
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Arms supply by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to rebels 31% 262
Arms supply by Iran and Russia to the Syrian Army and allied groups 64% 531
Turkey not preventing volunteers from joining ISIS / not preventing ISIS from entering Syria 23% 189
Hezbollah’s intervention in the war 44% 364
The US training and equipping rebel groups 13% 112
The inaction of the EU in trying to reach a solution 38% 316
I don´t know 12% 103
answered question 835
Q17: In your opinion, which are the most imporant internal events that have led to the current situation in Syria? (mutliple options)
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
The Syrian authorities and their military response to the demonstrations 79% 653
Military action by rebel groups 17% 143
Rising influence of jihadi groups / ISIS 31% 254
Protests / demonstrations 12% 98
other 10% 81
answered question 831
Q18: What was the main reason for you to leave Syria?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Imminent threat to your life or your family’s life (armed conflict, kidnapping, sieged, lack of food, killing) 69% 582
Economic reasons (better education or work opportunities) 13% 113
Family reunification 6% 55
Avoiding military conscription 8% 69
Getting a European passport 1% 8
Other 2% 21
answered question 848
Q19: If you left because you were afraid of conscription, which group were you worried would draft you?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Syrian Arab Army 75% 50
ISIS 7% 5
Kurdish Forces (YPG) 3% 2
Other Rebel Groups 4% 3
I don´t know 15% 10
other 3% 2
answered question 67
Q20: Why did you want to avoid conscription?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
I did not want to take part in the killing of my own people 84% 56
I lost faith in the goals of the armed groups 10% 7
I did not want to get killed 21% 14
other reasons 9% 6
answered question 67
Q21: Do you think more people would stay in Syria if parts of the country were protected and secured by international forces?
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Yes 60% 505
No 40% 339
answered question 844
Q22: Do you think more people could stay in Syria if Europe and the international community… (multiple answers)
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Delivered more humanitarian aid to Syria 24% 205
Created a no-fly zone to stop barrel bombs and aerial attacks 58% 489
Gave more financial support for reconstruction and development 18% 152
Stopped any arms delivery to Syria (to all parties in Syria) 38% 319
Supported the Syrian Government 6% 49
None of these 12% 102
answered question 844
Q23: How should Syria be in the future in order for you to have the option to return? (multiple answers)
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
War has to stop 68% 572
Democracy with free and fair elections 42% 352
Bashar al-Assad has to leave 52% 435
Economic situation improves 26% 219
Isis leaves the country 44% 370
Reconciliation between religious and ethnic groups 29% 243
Autonomy for the Kurds 16% 136
I don’t want to go back to Syria in the future 8% 71
answered question 844
Q24: Who is the best party in Syria to establish security? (multiple answers)
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Syrian Goverment 14% 115
ISIS 2% 14
Al Nusra 6% 46
Kurdish Forces (YPG) 12% 99
Free Syrian Army 22% 182
Other Rebel Groups 2% 20
Russia / Iran 1% 10
International Coalition 26% 216
I don’t know 33% 271
answered question 829
Q25: Who should Germany negotiate with internationally to find a solution for Syria? (mutiple answers)
Answer Options Response Percent Response Count
Russia 40% 326
US 31% 257
Turkey 21% 170
Iran 22% 182